Severe weather begins the week with a significant round of storms across the western Great Lakes before activity gradually shifts toward the Mid-Atlantic, Great Plains, and Northeast.
The latest Extreme Weather Insights forecast covers July 27 through August 2 and carries a score of 5/10, indicating another generally average week. While widespread hail is not expected, several localized events could still create meaningful opportunities for roofing and restoration contractors.
Last Week: Nearly 1,000 Wind Reports
Last week’s forecast earned an Extreme Weather Insights Score of 6/10, and the results matched that outlook well.
Nearly 1,000 damaging wind reports were recorded, with approximately 750 tied to a major Mid-Atlantic event. Hail activity remained more isolated, producing:
58 reports of hail larger than one inch
20 reports of hail larger than two inches
Notable hail in Iowa, South Dakota, and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula
July continues to be a quiet month for hail overall, keeping the year on pace to finish below average unless activity increases later in the season.
Monday: Significant Storms Around Lake Michigan
The week begins with a powerful cluster of thunderstorms moving south along Lake Michigan.
Milwaukee, Chicago, and surrounding communities are at risk for damaging winds and large hail. Several reports of two-inch hail had already occurred in Chicago’s western suburbs by late Monday morning.
A particularly significant storm near Appleton, Wisconsin, also appeared to produce a strong tornado in a densely populated area.
Additional damaging wind and hail activity may continue into northern Indiana as the storms move southeast.
The main Monday risk zone includes:
Eastern Wisconsin
Milwaukee
Chicago and its western suburbs
Northwest Indiana
Communities surrounding Lake Michigan
Tuesday: Damaging Winds Shift Toward Virginia and Washington, D.C.
A cold front moves south and east Tuesday, triggering thunderstorms across parts of the Mid-Atlantic.
Damaging wind will be the primary concern, with some small hail also possible. Areas to monitor include:
Virginia
Washington, D.C.
Communities around the Capital Beltway
Nearby Mid-Atlantic markets
The setup is less likely to produce widespread large hail, but strong wind gusts may still create localized property damage.
Wednesday: Large Hail Risk Returns to the Great Plains
Wednesday brings a more traditional Great Plains severe weather setup.
Widely scattered storms may produce large hail, potentially reaching golf-ball size in isolated locations. Coverage is expected to remain limited, so impacts may be concentrated in a smaller number of communities.
The strongest storms should remain east of Denver rather than affecting the metro directly.
Contractors should monitor portions of:
Eastern Colorado
Western Kansas
Western Nebraska
Nearby central High Plains markets
Thursday: Localized Risk in the Dakotas and Nebraska
The severe weather threat becomes more localized Thursday, focusing on the southern Dakotas and Nebraska.
Storm coverage is not expected to be widespread, but any stronger cells could still produce hail and damaging wind.
This appears to be a targeted rather than regional opportunity, making accurate storm tracking especially important.
Friday Through Sunday: Quieter but Not Completely Inactive
The weekend forecast remains somewhat uncertain because weather models continue to shift.
Friday may produce isolated storms across the Dakotas. Saturday appears relatively quiet, although scattered thunderstorms could develop along the Gulf Coast. Those storms are not expected to be significant hail producers.
By Sunday, a possible damaging wind threat may emerge across the Northeast. Confidence remains limited regarding the location and strength of those storms, but the region is worth monitoring as the weekend approaches.
Key Markets to Watch
Monday
Milwaukee
Chicago
Western suburbs of Chicago
Appleton and eastern Wisconsin
Northern Indiana
Tuesday
Virginia
Washington, D.C.
Capital Beltway region
Wednesday
Eastern Colorado
Western Kansas
Western Nebraska
Central High Plains
Thursday and Friday
South Dakota
North Dakota
Nebraska
Sunday
Northeast U.S.
What This Means for Roofing and Restoration Companies
This week is less about one widespread national outbreak and more about several targeted opportunities.
The most immediate concern is Monday’s activity around Lake Michigan, where large hail, damaging winds, and tornado damage may create inspection demand across populated markets.
Tuesday’s Mid-Atlantic wind threat and Wednesday’s Great Plains hail risk also deserve attention. Because storm coverage becomes more isolated later in the week, contractors will benefit from tracking exact storm paths and prioritizing verified areas of impact.
Bottom Line
The July 27 through August 2 forecast earns an Extreme Weather Insights Score of 5/10.
Monday is likely to be the most impactful day, with severe thunderstorms affecting Wisconsin, Chicago, and northern Indiana. Damaging winds then shift toward Virginia and Washington, D.C., before isolated large hail becomes possible across the Great Plains on Wednesday.
The remainder of the week looks quieter, although localized opportunities may continue across the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Northeast.
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